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Central Norte vs D. Madryn Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 20:00

Central Norte

PPG 1.25 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

D. Madryn

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-028.3%0-120.8%0-27.6%0-31.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.0%1-111.0%1-24.0%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-04.0%2-12.9%2-21.1%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-00.7%3-10.5%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.7% 41.7% 2.40 -24.4%

Draw 41.1% 37.7% 2.65 +8.9%

Away win 34.2% 30.8% 3.25 +11.2%

Over 2.5 25.8% 34.5% 2.90 -15.1%

Over 3.5 4.0% 16.7% 6.00 -45.6%

BTTS 41.8% 45.5% 2.20 -8.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob41.8%

D 41% / xG 0.5-0.7 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 28.3%

#2 0–1 20.8%

#3 1–0 15.0%

#4 1–1 11.0%

#5 0–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Central Norte0.5

D. Madryn0.7

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 4.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CENTRAL NORTE · PPG 1.25

D. MADRYN · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Central Norte (H) 24.7%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -24.4%

Draw 41.1%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +8.9%

D. Madryn (A) 34.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Central Norte face D. Madryn in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Central Norte a 25% chance, the draw 41% and D. Madryn 34%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.5 for Central Norte and 0.7 for D. Madryn (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Central Norte are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.83 for D. Madryn. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.2%. This match finished 2-3.

Central Norte vs D. Madryn Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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