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Chaco For Ever vs Ciudad Bolivar Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 19:30

Chaco For Ever

PPG 1.20 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Ciudad Bolivar

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-022.2%0-120.2%0-29.2%0-32.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.2%1-112.0%1-25.5%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-03.9%2-13.6%2-21.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-00.8%3-10.7%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.8% 54.6% 1.83 -33.9%

Draw 39.9% 34.5% 2.90 +15.7%

Away win 36.4% 20.8% 4.80 +74.7%

Over 2.5 27.7% 32.3% 3.10 -8.5%

Over 3.5 6.6% 14.3% 7.00 -32.3%

BTTS 45.9% 39.2% 2.55 +17.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob45.9%

A 36% / xG 0.6-0.9 / U2.5 28% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 22.2%

#2 0–1✓ 20.2%

#3 1–1 12.0%

#4 1–0 13.2%

#5 0–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chaco For Ever0.6

Ciudad Bolivar0.9

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 27.7% · O3.5 PROB 6.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CHACO FOR EVER · PPG 1.20

CIUDAD BOLIVAR · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.20) vs Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Chaco For Ever (H) 23.8%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -33.9%

Draw 39.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +15.7%

Ciudad Bolivar (A) 36.4%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +74.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chaco For Ever face Ciudad Bolivar in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chaco For Ever a 24% chance, the draw 40% and Ciudad Bolivar 36%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.6 for Chaco For Ever and 0.9 for Ciudad Bolivar (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 28% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chaco For Ever are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.67 for Ciudad Bolivar. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +74.7%. This match finished 0-1.

Chaco For Ever vs Ciudad Bolivar Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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