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Nautico vs America MG Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 8 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 19:00

Nautico

PPG 1.00 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

America MG

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.6%0-112.6%0-23.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.0%1-112.2%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.6%2-15.9%2-21.8%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.1%3-11.9%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.7% 51.8% 1.93 -19.5%

Draw 33.6% 29.9% 3.35 +12.6%

Away win 24.7% 25.6% 3.90 -2.2%

Over 2.5 35.1% 47.6% 2.10 -26.3%

Over 3.5 7.6% 26.3% 3.80 -42.7%

BTTS 45.9% 54.1% 1.85 -15.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.9%

H 42% / xG 1.0-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 20.6%

#2 1–0 20.0%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 0–1 12.6%

#5 2–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nautico1.0

America MG0.6

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 7.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NAUTICO · PPG 1.00

AMERICA MG · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Nautico (H) 41.7%

ODDS 1.93 · IMPLIED 51.8% EV -19.5%

Draw 33.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +12.6%

America MG (A) 24.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -2.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nautico face America MG in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nautico a 42% chance, the draw 34% and America MG 25%, so Nautico are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Nautico and 0.6 for America MG (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nautico are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.33 for America MG. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +12.6%. This match finished 4-0.

Nautico vs America MG Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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