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Remo vs Palmeiras Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 19:00

Remo

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Palmeiras

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 57.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-113.6%0-211.6%0-36.6%0-4+4.1%1 1-06.6%1-111.2%1-29.6%1-35.4%1-4+3.4%2 2-02.7%2-14.6%2-23.9%2-32.2%2-4+1.4%3 3-00.7%3-11.3%3-21.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.9% 23.8% 4.20 -17.4%

Draw 26.1% 28.2% 3.55 -4.4%

Away win 57.0% 55.2% 1.81 +3.2%

Over 2.5 46.5% 52.6% 1.90 -11.7%

Over 3.5 24.9% 30.8% 3.25 -11.5%

BTTS 52.3% 56.5% 1.77 -7.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob52.3%

A 57% / xG 0.8-1.7 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.2%

#2 0–1 13.6%

#3 0–2 11.6%

#4 0–0 7.9%

#5 1–2 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Remo0.8

Palmeiras1.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 24.9%

Form & verdict PPG

REMO · PPG 1.00

PALMEIRAS · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Remo (H) 16.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -17.4%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -4.4%

Palmeiras (A) 57.0%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV +3.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Remo face Palmeiras in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Remo a 17% chance, the draw 26% and Palmeiras 57%, so Palmeiras are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Remo and 1.7 for Palmeiras (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Remo are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Palmeiras. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Remo vs Palmeiras Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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