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Brazil - Serie A
Regular Season - 15
Arena MRV· Belo Horizonte
Sunday, May 10, 2026
19:00
Atletico MG
PPG 1.83
1-1
HIT MostLikelyScore
Botafogo
PPG 1.29
Over3.5· +69.0%
✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
39.7%
Odds: 2.14
EV: -15.0%
Draw
25.3%
Odds: 3.40
EV: -8.4%
Away
35.0%
Odds: 3.25
EV: +13.8%
Model lean:
BTTS
Result: Draw ✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
61.7%
Odds: 1.95
+20.3%
Over 3.5
49.0%
Odds: 3.45
+69.0%
BTTS
62.7%
Odds: 1.75
+9.7%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘
BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st
1-1
✔
2nd
2-1
✘
3rd
1-2
✘
4th
2-2
✘
5th
3-1
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico MG
1.85
Botafogo
1.77
Model Suggestion
BTTS
+9.7%
ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market:
Over 2.5.
Raw EV leader:
Over3.5(+69.0%)
League Track Record
↗
Based on 63 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc
49%
O2.5/Under
48%
BTTS/No
54%
Score Hit
49%
ROI
8.0%
Bet Hit
56%
(27 bets)
Verdict & Form
✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75%
MODERATE_HOME
Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.83) > Away AVERAGE (1.29)