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Atletico MG vs Botafogo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 19:00

Atletico MG

PPG 1.83 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Botafogo

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-14.7%0-24.2%0-32.5%0-4+1.6%1 1-04.9%1-18.8%1-27.8%1-34.6%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.6%2-18.1%2-27.2%2-34.2%2-4+2.8%3 3-02.8%3-15.0%3-24.4%3-32.6%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.5%4+-23.1%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.7% 46.7% 2.14 -15.0%

Draw 25.3% 29.4% 3.40 -8.4%

Away win 35.0% 30.8% 3.25 +13.8%

Over 2.5 61.7% 51.3% 1.95 +20.3%

Over 3.5 49.0% 29.0% 3.45 +69.0%

BTTS 62.7% 57.1% 1.75 +9.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob62.7%

H 40% / xG 1.9-1.8 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 8.8%

#2 2–1 8.1%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico MG1.9

Botafogo1.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 49.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO MG · PPG 1.83

BOTAFOGO · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.83) > Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Atletico MG (H) 39.7%

ODDS 2.14 · IMPLIED 46.7% EV -15.0%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -8.4%

Botafogo (A) 35.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico MG face Botafogo in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico MG a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Botafogo 35%, so Atletico MG are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Atletico MG and 1.8 for Botafogo (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico MG are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.29 for Botafogo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +69.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Atletico MG vs Botafogo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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