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AC Milan vs Atalanta Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Regular Season - 36 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 18:45

AC Milan

PPG 1.88 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

Atalanta

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.1%0-112.5%0-25.6%0-31.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.1%1-113.4%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.1%2-17.2%2-23.2%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.9%3-12.6%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.6% 47.2% 2.12 -16.1%

Draw 32.3% 30.3% 3.30 +6.6%

Away win 28.1% 29.9% 3.35 -3.5%

Over 2.5 35.6% 54.6% 1.83 -34.8%

Over 3.5 13.6% 33.3% 3.00 -35.5%

BTTS 48.2% 60.6% 1.65 -20.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.2%

H 40% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.1%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 1–0 15.1%

#4 0–1 12.5%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AC Milan1.1

Atalanta0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.6% · O3.5 PROB 13.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AC MILAN · PPG 1.88

ATALANTA · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.88) > Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

AC Milan (H) 39.6%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -16.1%

Draw 32.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +6.6%

Atalanta (A) 28.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -3.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

AC Milan face Atalanta in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AC Milan a 40% chance, the draw 32% and Atalanta 28%, so AC Milan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for AC Milan and 0.9 for Atalanta (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AC Milan are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.29 for Atalanta. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.6%. This match finished 2-3.

AC Milan vs Atalanta Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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