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Chacarita J. vs Colegiales Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 18:30

Chacarita J.

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Colegiales

PPG 0.17 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.1%0-112.1%0-23.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.5%1-112.4%1-23.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.0%2-16.3%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.4%3-12.2%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.7% 51.3% 1.95 -18.7%

Draw 33.6% 35.1% 2.85 -4.2%

Away win 24.7% 23.1% 4.33 +4.2%

Over 2.5 35.1% 34.5% 2.90 +1.8%

Over 3.5 8.7% 15.4% 6.50 -26.1%

BTTS 45.9% 42.6% 2.35 +7.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.9%

H 42% / xG 1.0-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.1%

#2 1–0 19.5%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 0–1 12.1%

#5 2–0✓ 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chacarita J.1.0

Colegiales0.6

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 8.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CHACARITA J. · PPG 1.67

COLEGIALES · PPG 0.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=41.7%

Win probability 1X2

Chacarita J. (H) 41.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -18.7%

Draw 33.6%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -4.2%

Colegiales (A) 24.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chacarita J. face Colegiales in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chacarita J. a 42% chance, the draw 34% and Colegiales 25%, so Chacarita J. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Chacarita J. and 0.6 for Colegiales (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chacarita J. are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.17 for Colegiales. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +7.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Chacarita J. vs Colegiales Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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