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Acassuso vs Almirante Brown Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 18:30

Acassuso

PPG 1.20 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Almirante Brown

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-026.8%0-119.1%0-26.8%0-31.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.2%1-111.5%1-24.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-04.9%2-13.5%2-21.2%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.0%3-10.7%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.6% 36.4% 2.75 -17.8%

Draw 41.6% 37.0% 2.70 +12.3%

Away win 32.8% 36.4% 2.75 -9.8%

Over 2.5 25.8% 33.9% 2.95 -14.3%

Over 3.5 4.5% 14.3% 7.00 -41.1%

BTTS 41.8% 45.5% 2.20 -8.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob41.8%

D 42% / xG 0.6-0.7 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 26.8%

#2 0–1 19.1%

#3 1–0 16.2%

#4 1–1 11.5%

#5 0–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Acassuso0.6

Almirante Brown0.7

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 4.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ACASSUSO · PPG 1.20

ALMIRANTE BROWN · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Acassuso (H) 25.6%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -17.8%

Draw 41.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +12.3%

Almirante Brown (A) 32.8%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -9.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Acassuso face Almirante Brown in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Acassuso a 26% chance, the draw 42% and Almirante Brown 33%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.6 for Acassuso and 0.7 for Almirante Brown (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Acassuso are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.33 for Almirante Brown. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +12.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Acassuso vs Almirante Brown Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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