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Al Ittihad vs Damak Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 32 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 18:00

Al Ittihad

PPG 1.87 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Damak

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 59% chance

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-16.1%0-22.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.3%1-110.8%1-24.4%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.9%2-19.6%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.1%3-15.7%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-13.8%4+-21.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 67.6% 1.48 -24.5%

Draw 26.4% 22.2% 4.50 +11.3%

Away win 22.6% 16.7% 6.00 +21.4%

Over 2.5 52.8% 61.7% 1.62 -14.5%

Over 3.5 26.3% 38.5% 2.60 -19.0%

BTTS 52.3% 57.8% 1.73 -9.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 51% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–0 11.9%

#3 1–0 13.3%

#4 2–1✓ 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Ittihad1.8

Damak0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AL ITTIHAD · PPG 1.87

DAMAK · PPG 0.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

59%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.87) vs P(Home)=51.0%

Win probability 1X2

Al Ittihad (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -24.5%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +11.3%

Damak (A) 22.6%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +21.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Ittihad face Damak in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Ittihad a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Damak 23%, so Al Ittihad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Al Ittihad and 0.8 for Damak (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Ittihad are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 0.73 for Damak. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Al Ittihad vs Damak Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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