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Sport Huancayo vs Juan Pablo II Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 14 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 18:00

Sport Huancayo

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Juan Pablo II

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-14.6%0-23.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.7%1-19.3%1-26.4%1-33.0%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.8%2-19.4%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.6%3-16.3%3-24.4%3-32.0%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-15.1%4+-23.5%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 70.9% 1.41 -30.5%

Draw 25.6% 22.7% 4.40 +7.6%

Away win 25.1% 13.3% 7.50 +52.9%

Over 2.5 61.7% 58.8% 1.70 +4.9%

Over 3.5 44.3% 37.0% 2.70 +19.6%

BTTS 58.8% 54.6% 1.83 +7.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.8%

H 49% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1✓ 9.4%

#3 2–0 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 1–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sport Huancayo2.0

Juan Pablo II1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 44.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORT HUANCAYO · PPG 1.67

JUAN PABLO II · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Sport Huancayo (H) 49.3%

ODDS 1.41 · IMPLIED 70.9% EV -30.5%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +7.6%

Juan Pablo II (A) 25.1%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +52.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sport Huancayo face Juan Pablo II in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sport Huancayo a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Juan Pablo II 25%, so Sport Huancayo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Sport Huancayo and 1.4 for Juan Pablo II (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sport Huancayo are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.17 for Juan Pablo II. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +52.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Sport Huancayo vs Juan Pablo II Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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