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Sanluqueno vs Europa Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 33 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:00

Sanluqueno

PPG 1.13 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Europa

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-18.8%0-25.0%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.0%1-112.5%1-27.1%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.8%2-18.9%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.7%3-14.2%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.1%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% 32.3% 3.10 +35.5%

Draw 26.3% 32.3% 3.10 -18.5%

Away win 30.0% 46.5% 2.15 -35.5%

Over 2.5 47.2% 42.6% 2.35 +10.9%

Over 3.5 25.6% 22.2% 4.50 +15.2%

BTTS 51.6% 50.0% 2.00 +3.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.6%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 11.0%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 0–1 8.8%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sanluqueno1.4

Europa1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.2% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SANLUQUENO · PPG 1.13

EUROPA · PPG 1.25

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.13), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Sanluqueno (H) 43.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +35.5%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -18.5%

Europa (A) 30.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -35.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sanluqueno face Europa in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sanluqueno a 44% chance, the draw 26% and Europa 30%, so Sanluqueno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sanluqueno and 1.1 for Europa (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sanluqueno are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.25 for Europa. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +35.5%. This match finished 1-3.

Sanluqueno vs Europa Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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