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Dinamo Batumi vs Samgurali Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 17:00

Dinamo Batumi

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Samgurali

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.8% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-17.3%0-24.7%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.9%1-111.5%1-27.5%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.1%2-25.9%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.7%3-14.8%3-23.1%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.7%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.0% 41.7% 2.40 +5.6%

Draw 26.6% 31.3% 3.20 -8.9%

Away win 29.3% 38.2% 2.62 -13.9%

Over 2.5 58.4% 57.1% 1.75 +2.2%

Over 3.5 32.5% 36.0% 2.78 -9.7%

BTTS 58.8% 63.7% 1.57 -7.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.7%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.8%

H 44% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 0–0 5.6%

#5 1–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dinamo Batumi1.6

Samgurali1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DINAMO BATUMI · PPG 1.00

SAMGURALI · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Dinamo Batumi (H) 44.0%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +5.6%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.9%

Samgurali (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -13.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dinamo Batumi face Samgurali in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dinamo Batumi a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Samgurali 29%, so Dinamo Batumi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Dinamo Batumi and 1.3 for Samgurali (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dinamo Batumi are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.80 for Samgurali. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.6%. This match finished 3-1.

Dinamo Batumi vs Samgurali Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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