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Real Murcia vs Real Betis B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 36 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 16:45

Real Murcia

PPG 1.35 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Real Betis B

PPG 0.76 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-19.5%0-24.4%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.8%1-112.8%1-26.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.3%2-18.7%2-24.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.2%3-13.9%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 63.7% 1.57 -27.6%

Draw 28.1% 28.2% 3.55 -0.1%

Away win 25.7% 18.5% 5.40 +23.3%

Over 2.5 46.0% 51.3% 1.95 -10.3%

Over 3.5 19.8% 29.4% 3.40 -19.6%

BTTS 52.1% 52.4% 1.91 -0.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.1%

H 46% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 10.2%

#3 1–0 13.8%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Murcia1.4

Real Betis B0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.0% · O3.5 PROB 19.8%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL MURCIA · PPG 1.35

REAL BETIS B · PPG 0.76

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.35) > Away POOR (0.76)

Win probability 1X2

Real Murcia (H) 46.1%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -27.6%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -0.1%

Real Betis B (A) 25.7%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +23.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Murcia face Real Betis B in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Murcia a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Real Betis B 26%, so Real Murcia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Real Murcia and 0.9 for Real Betis B (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Murcia are averaging 1.35 points per game versus 0.76 for Real Betis B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Real Murcia vs Real Betis B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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