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Antequera vs Teruel Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 36 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 16:45

Antequera

PPG 1.29 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Teruel

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.9%0-113.7%0-25.5%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-016.4%1-113.2%1-25.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.0%2-16.4%2-22.6%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.6%3-12.1%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.0% 51.3% 1.95 -25.9%

Draw 35.7% 36.4% 2.75 -1.8%

Away win 26.3% 23.1% 4.33 +8.3%

Over 2.5 35.1% 42.6% 2.35 -17.5%

Over 3.5 10.5% 23.8% 4.20 -33.5%

BTTS 46.6% 51.3% 1.95 -9.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.6%

H 38% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.9%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 1–0✓ 16.4%

#4 0–1 13.7%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Antequera1.0

Teruel0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 10.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ANTEQUERA · PPG 1.29

TERUEL · PPG 1.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away AVERAGE (1.12)

Win probability 1X2

Antequera (H) 38.0%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -25.9%

Draw 35.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -1.8%

Teruel (A) 26.3%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Antequera face Teruel in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Antequera a 38% chance, the draw 36% and Teruel 26%, so Antequera are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Antequera and 0.8 for Teruel (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Antequera are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.12 for Teruel. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Antequera vs Teruel Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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