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Copiapo vs U. San Felipe Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 16:30

Copiapo

PPG 1.40 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

U. San Felipe

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-15.6%0-22.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.0%1-110.5%1-24.6%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.2%2-19.8%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.0%3-16.1%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-14.4%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 59.9% 1.67 -14.8%

Draw 26.4% 28.2% 3.55 -3.8%

Away win 22.6% 21.7% 4.60 +2.4%

Over 2.5 53.1% 51.3% 1.95 +3.5%

Over 3.5 29.6% 29.0% 3.45 +1.3%

BTTS 52.3% 54.1% 1.85 -3.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.3%

H 51% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–0 11.2%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 2–1✓ 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Copiapo1.9

U. San Felipe0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.6%

Form & verdict PPG

COPIAPO · PPG 1.40

U. SAN FELIPE · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Copiapo (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -14.8%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -3.8%

U. San Felipe (A) 22.6%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Copiapo face U. San Felipe in Chile - Primera B on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Copiapo a 51% chance, the draw 26% and U. San Felipe 23%, so Copiapo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Copiapo and 0.9 for U. San Felipe (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Copiapo are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.60 for U. San Felipe. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Copiapo vs U. San Felipe Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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