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Antofagasta vs San Luis Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 16:30

Antofagasta

PPG 2.25 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

San Luis

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-14.5%0-22.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.9%1-19.4%1-25.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.6%3-17.0%3-23.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-16.0%4+-23.2%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 57.8% 1.73 -11.8%

Draw 26.4% 27.4% 3.65 -2.2%

Away win 22.6% 24.4% 4.10 -4.4%

Over 2.5 60.2% 58.8% 1.70 +2.3%

Over 3.5 39.0% 36.4% 2.75 +7.2%

BTTS 58.0% 60.6% 1.65 -4.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.0%

H 51% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 1–0 8.9%

#5 3–1✓ 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Antofagasta2.1

San Luis1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ANTOFAGASTA · PPG 2.25

SAN LUIS · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=51.0%

Win probability 1X2

Antofagasta (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -11.8%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -2.2%

San Luis (A) 22.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Antofagasta face San Luis in Chile - Primera B on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Antofagasta a 51% chance, the draw 26% and San Luis 23%, so Antofagasta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Antofagasta and 1.1 for San Luis (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Antofagasta are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.40 for San Luis. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.2%. This match finished 3-1.

Antofagasta vs San Luis Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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