Today / Spain - Segunda División / Mirandes vs Eibar

Mirandes vs Eibar Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Regular Season - 39 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 16:30

Mirandes

PPG 1.05 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Eibar

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-114.3%0-28.9%0-33.7%0-4+1.5%1 1-010.5%1-113.1%1-28.2%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-04.8%2-16.0%2-23.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.5%3-11.9%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.4% 37.3% 2.68 -15.9%

Draw 29.5% 30.3% 3.30 -1.6%

Away win 43.1% 39.4% 2.54 +9.5%

Over 2.5 45.8% 50.0% 2.00 -8.4%

Over 3.5 17.5% 27.4% 3.65 -21.7%

BTTS 50.9% 57.1% 1.75 -10.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob50.9%

A 43% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 11.4%

#3 0–1✓ 14.3%

#4 0–2 8.9%

#5 1–0 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mirandes0.9

Eibar1.3

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 17.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MIRANDES · PPG 1.05

EIBAR · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.05), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Mirandes (H) 27.4%

ODDS 2.68 · IMPLIED 37.3% EV -15.9%

Draw 29.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -1.6%

Eibar (A) 43.1%

ODDS 2.54 · IMPLIED 39.4% EV +9.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mirandes face Eibar in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mirandes a 27% chance, the draw 30% and Eibar 43%, so Eibar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Mirandes and 1.3 for Eibar (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mirandes are averaging 1.05 points per game versus 1.00 for Eibar. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Mirandes vs Eibar Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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