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Cordoba vs Granada Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 39 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 16:30

Cordoba

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Granada

PPG 1.16 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-18.8%0-25.4%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.1%1-112.4%1-27.6%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.1%2-18.7%2-25.3%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.3%3-14.1%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.7% 58.5% 1.71 -28.7%

Draw 27.6% 27.0% 3.70 +1.3%

Away win 30.7% 21.7% 4.60 +41.2%

Over 2.5 52.8% 55.6% 1.80 -5.0%

Over 3.5 27.1% 33.3% 3.00 -11.2%

BTTS 54.6% 58.8% 1.70 -7.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 42% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.2%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 1–0✓ 10.1%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cordoba1.4

Granada1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CORDOBA · PPG 1.56

GRANADA · PPG 1.16

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.56) > Away AVERAGE (1.16)

Win probability 1X2

Cordoba (H) 41.7%

ODDS 1.71 · IMPLIED 58.5% EV -28.7%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +1.3%

Granada (A) 30.7%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +41.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cordoba face Granada in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cordoba a 42% chance, the draw 28% and Granada 31%, so Cordoba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Cordoba and 1.2 for Granada (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cordoba are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.16 for Granada. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +41.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Cordoba vs Granada Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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