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Slaven Belupo vs Gorica Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 34 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 16:15

Slaven Belupo

PPG 1.63 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Gorica

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-18.7%0-25.4%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.1%1-112.4%1-27.6%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.1%2-18.7%2-25.4%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.4%3-14.1%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.0% 42.0% 2.38 -0.0%

Draw 27.4% 30.8% 3.25 -6.6%

Away win 30.6% 36.0% 2.78 -14.9%

Over 2.5 52.8% 51.3% 1.95 +3.0%

Over 3.5 27.4% 29.4% 3.40 -4.1%

BTTS 54.6% 58.8% 1.70 -7.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 42% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.1%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 1–0✓ 10.1%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Slaven Belupo1.4

Gorica1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SLAVEN BELUPO · PPG 1.63

GORICA · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.63) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Slaven Belupo (H) 42.0%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -0.0%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.6%

Gorica (A) 30.6%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV -14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Slaven Belupo face Gorica in Croatia - HNL on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Slaven Belupo a 42% chance, the draw 27% and Gorica 31%, so Slaven Belupo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Slaven Belupo and 1.2 for Gorica (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Slaven Belupo are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.06 for Gorica. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Slaven Belupo vs Gorica Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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