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Al Riyadh vs Al Fateh Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 32 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 16:05

Al Riyadh

PPG 0.93 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Al Fateh

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 61% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-18.3%0-26.3%0-33.1%0-4+1.6%1 1-07.7%1-111.6%1-28.7%1-34.3%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.4%2-18.1%2-26.0%2-33.0%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.5%3-13.7%3-22.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.8%4+-21.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.2% 47.6% 2.10 -21.9%

Draw 26.3% 27.8% 3.60 -3.2%

Away win 36.4% 32.3% 3.10 +12.8%

Over 2.5 59.3% 61.7% 1.62 -3.9%

Over 3.5 32.8% 39.2% 2.55 -16.4%

BTTS 58.8% 66.7% 1.50 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.8%

H 37% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 0–0 5.6%

#5 0–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Riyadh1.4

Al Fateh1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AL RIYADH · PPG 0.93

AL FATEH · PPG 0.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

61%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.93), Away POOR (0.73)

Win probability 1X2

Al Riyadh (H) 37.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -21.9%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -3.2%

Al Fateh (A) 36.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Riyadh face Al Fateh in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Riyadh a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Al Fateh 36%, so Al Riyadh are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Al Riyadh and 1.5 for Al Fateh (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Riyadh are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 0.73 for Al Fateh. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Al Riyadh vs Al Fateh Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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