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PSM vs Borneo Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 28 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:00

PSM

PPG 0.92 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Borneo

PPG 1.77 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-19.8%0-28.4%0-34.8%0-4+3.0%1 1-06.6%1-111.2%1-29.6%1-35.5%1-4+3.5%2 2-03.8%2-16.5%2-25.5%2-33.2%2-4+2.0%3 3-01.4%3-12.5%3-22.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.5% 36.4% 2.75 -29.9%

Draw 23.9% 29.0% 3.45 -17.5%

Away win 50.6% 44.4% 2.25 +13.9%

Over 2.5 54.5% 60.6% 1.65 -10.1%

Over 3.5 32.2% 38.5% 2.60 -16.3%

BTTS 56.0% 66.7% 1.50 -16.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob56.0%

A 51% / xG 1.1-1.7 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 0–1 9.8%

#3 1–2✓ 9.6%

#4 0–2 8.4%

#5 1–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PSM1.1

Borneo1.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PSM · PPG 0.92

BORNEO · PPG 1.77

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.77) vs Home POOR (0.92)

Win probability 1X2

PSM (H) 25.5%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -29.9%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -17.5%

Borneo (A) 50.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +13.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

PSM face Borneo in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PSM a 26% chance, the draw 24% and Borneo 51%, so Borneo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for PSM and 1.7 for Borneo (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PSM are averaging 0.92 points per game versus 1.77 for Borneo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +13.9%. This match finished 1-2.

PSM vs Borneo Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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