Today / Indonesia - Liga 1 / PSM vs Borneo

PSM vs Borneo Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Matchday 28 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:00

PSM

PPG 0.92 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Borneo

PPG 1.77 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 64% chance

Model probability 56.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-19.8%0-28.4%0-34.8%0-4+3.0%1 1-06.6%1-111.2%1-29.6%1-35.5%1-4+3.5%2 2-03.8%2-16.5%2-25.5%2-33.2%2-4+2.0%3 3-01.4%3-12.5%3-22.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.5% 36.4% 2.75 -29.9%

Draw 23.9% 29.0% 3.45 -17.5%

Away win 50.6% 44.4% 2.25 +13.9%

Over 2.5 54.5% 60.6% 1.65 -10.1%

Over 3.5 32.2% 38.5% 2.60 -16.3%

BTTS 56.0% 66.7% 1.50 -16.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -40.1%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob56.0%

A 51% / xG 1.1-1.7 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 0–1 9.8%

#3 1–2✓ 9.6%

#4 0–2 8.4%

#5 1–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PSM1.1

Borneo1.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PSM · PPG 0.92

BORNEO · PPG 1.77

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

64%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.77) vs Home POOR (0.92)

Win probability 1X2

PSM (H) 25.5%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -29.9%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -17.5%

Borneo (A) 50.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +13.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

PSM face Borneo in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PSM a 26% chance, the draw 24% and Borneo 51%, so Borneo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for PSM and 1.7 for Borneo (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PSM are averaging 0.92 points per game versus 1.77 for Borneo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +13.9%. This match finished 1-2.

PSM vs Borneo Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Indonesia - Liga 1 Predictions