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Parma vs AS Roma Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Regular Season - 36 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 16:00

Parma

PPG 1.06 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

AS Roma

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.1%0-118.6%0-211.4%0-34.7%0-4+1.9%1 1-010.0%1-112.3%1-27.5%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-03.3%2-14.0%2-22.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.4%3 3-00.7%3-10.9%3-20.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.5% 15.2% 6.60 +37.0%

Draw 29.8% 25.0% 4.00 +11.5%

Away win 45.6% 66.7% 1.50 -31.6%

Over 2.5 35.1% 50.0% 2.00 -29.8%

Over 3.5 12.3% 28.2% 3.55 -33.8%

BTTS 45.9% 47.6% 2.10 -3.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob45.9%

A 46% / xG 0.7-1.2 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.1%

#2 0–1 18.6%

#3 1–1 12.3%

#4 0–2 11.4%

#5 1–0 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Parma0.7

AS Roma1.2

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 12.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PARMA · PPG 1.06

AS ROMA · PPG 1.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.06) vs Away AVERAGE (1.47)

Win probability 1X2

Parma (H) 24.5%

ODDS 6.60 · IMPLIED 15.2% EV +37.0%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +11.5%

AS Roma (A) 45.6%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -31.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Parma face AS Roma in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Parma a 25% chance, the draw 30% and AS Roma 46%, so AS Roma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Parma and 1.2 for AS Roma (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Parma are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.47 for AS Roma. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +37.0%. This match finished 2-3.

Parma vs AS Roma Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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