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PSBS Biak N. vs Persija Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 28 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:00

PSBS Biak N.

PPG 0.92 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Persija

PPG 1.85 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 73.8% vs bookmaker-implied 93.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-17.0%0-29.4%0-38.4%0-4+10.8%1 1-02.5%1-16.7%1-29.0%1-38.1%1-4+10.4%2 2-01.2%2-13.2%2-24.4%2-33.9%2-4+5.0%3 3-00.4%3-11.0%3-21.4%3-31.3%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 11.0% 3.8% 26.00 +186.0%

Draw 15.1% 10.5% 9.50 +43.5%

Away win 73.8% 93.5% 1.07 -21.0%

Over 2.5 70.7% — — —

Over 3.5 49.6% — — —

BTTS 57.7% 48.8% 2.05 +18.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob57.7%

A 74% / xG 1.0-2.7 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 9.4%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 0–3 8.4%

#4 1–3 8.1%

#5 0–1✓ 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PSBS Biak N.1.0

Persija2.7

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.7% · O3.5 PROB 49.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PSBS BIAK N. · PPG 0.92

PERSIJA · PPG 1.85

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.85) vs Home POOR (0.92)

Win probability 1X2

PSBS Biak N. (H) 11.0%

ODDS 26.00 · IMPLIED 3.8% EV +186.0%

Draw 15.1%

ODDS 9.50 · IMPLIED 10.5% EV +43.5%

Persija (A) 73.8%

ODDS 1.07 · IMPLIED 93.5% EV -21.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

PSBS Biak N. face Persija in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PSBS Biak N. a 11% chance, the draw 15% and Persija 74%, so Persija are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for PSBS Biak N. and 2.7 for Persija (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PSBS Biak N. are averaging 0.92 points per game versus 1.85 for Persija. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +186.0%. This match finished 0-1.

PSBS Biak N. vs Persija Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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