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Tromso vs Molde Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Regular Season - 8 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 15:00

Tromso

PPG 2.17 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Molde

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-17.3%0-24.2%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.2%1-111.7%1-26.7%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.4%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.4%3-15.1%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.9%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.9% 52.6% 1.90 -9.0%

Draw 26.3% 27.8% 3.60 -3.2%

Away win 25.8% 26.7% 3.75 -1.9%

Over 2.5 53.1% 54.6% 1.83 -2.8%

Over 3.5 29.8% 33.3% 3.00 -6.4%

BTTS 54.6% 59.9% 1.67 -8.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -16.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 10.2%

#4 2–0✓ 8.2%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tromso1.6

Molde1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TROMSO · PPG 2.17

MOLDE · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=47.9%

Win probability 1X2

Tromso (H) 47.9%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -9.0%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -3.2%

Molde (A) 25.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tromso face Molde in Norway - Eliteserien on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tromso a 48% chance, the draw 26% and Molde 26%, so Tromso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Tromso and 1.1 for Molde (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tromso are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.33 for Molde. This match finished 2-0.

Tromso vs Molde Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - Eliteserien Predictions