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Sandefjord vs Kristiansund Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 8 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 15:00

Sandefjord

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Kristiansund

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.7%0-114.7%0-25.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.3%1-112.9%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.6%2-15.7%2-22.1%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.2%3-11.7%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.0% 62.5% 1.60 -39.2%

Draw 35.7% 24.4% 4.10 +46.4%

Away win 26.3% 20.0% 5.00 +18.9%

Over 2.5 35.1% 63.7% 1.57 -44.9%

Over 3.5 8.2% 41.7% 2.40 -48.2%

BTTS 45.9% 63.7% 1.57 -27.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 9.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.9%

H 38% / xG 0.9-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.7%

#2 1–0 17.3%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 0–1 14.7%

#5 2–0✓ 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sandefjord0.9

Kristiansund0.7

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 8.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SANDEFJORD · PPG 1.33

KRISTIANSUND · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

46%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs P(Home)=38.0%

Win probability 1X2

Sandefjord (H) 38.0%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -39.2%

Draw 35.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +46.4%

Kristiansund (A) 26.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +18.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sandefjord face Kristiansund in Norway - Eliteserien on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sandefjord a 38% chance, the draw 36% and Kristiansund 26%, so Sandefjord are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Sandefjord and 0.7 for Kristiansund (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sandefjord are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.50 for Kristiansund. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +46.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Sandefjord vs Kristiansund Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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