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C. Zmijavci vs Jarun Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 15:00

C. Zmijavci

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Jarun

PPG 0.47 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.3%0-113.4%0-26.3%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.4%1-113.5%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.2%2-16.8%2-23.2%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.4%3-12.3%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.3% 52.4% 1.91 -28.8%

Draw 32.2% 34.5% 2.90 -6.6%

Away win 30.5% 25.0% 4.00 +22.0%

Over 2.5 35.1% 40.0% 2.50 -12.3%

Over 3.5 13.3% 22.2% 4.50 -24.1%

BTTS 48.2% 48.8% 2.05 -1.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.2%

D 32% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.3%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0 14.4%

#4 0–1 13.4%

#5 2–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

C. Zmijavci1.0

Jarun0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 13.3%

Form & verdict PPG

C. ZMIJAVCI · PPG 1.00

JARUN · PPG 0.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.47)

Win probability 1X2

C. Zmijavci (H) 37.3%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -28.8%

Draw 32.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -6.6%

Jarun (A) 30.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +22.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

C. Zmijavci face Jarun in Croatia - First NL on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives C. Zmijavci a 37% chance, the draw 32% and Jarun 31%, so C. Zmijavci are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for C. Zmijavci and 0.9 for Jarun (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, C. Zmijavci are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.47 for Jarun. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +22.0%. This match finished 1-2.

C. Zmijavci vs Jarun Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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