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Tarazona vs Gimnastic T. Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 36 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 14:30

Tarazona

PPG 1.65 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Gimnastic T.

PPG 0.76 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.3%0-112.7%0-25.0%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.9%1-113.1%1-25.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.7%2-16.8%2-22.7%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.0%3-12.3%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.5% 45.5% 2.20 -13.1%

Draw 34.7% 34.5% 2.90 +0.6%

Away win 25.8% 29.9% 3.35 -8.1%

Over 2.5 35.1% 38.2% 2.62 -8.0%

Over 3.5 11.1% 23.1% 4.33 -31.2%

BTTS 47.9% 47.6% 2.10 +0.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.9%

H 40% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.3%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 1–0 16.9%

#4 0–1 12.7%

#5 2–0✓ 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tarazona1.0

Gimnastic T.0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 11.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TARAZONA · PPG 1.65

GIMNASTIC T. · PPG 0.76

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.65) vs P(Home)=39.5%

Win probability 1X2

Tarazona (H) 39.5%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -13.1%

Draw 34.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +0.6%

Gimnastic T. (A) 25.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -8.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tarazona face Gimnastic T. in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tarazona a 40% chance, the draw 35% and Gimnastic T. 26%, so Tarazona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Tarazona and 0.8 for Gimnastic T. (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tarazona are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 0.76 for Gimnastic T.. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Tarazona vs Gimnastic T. Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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