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Europa vs Villarreal B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 36 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 14:30

Europa

PPG 1.76 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

Villarreal B

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-114.0%0-27.8%0-32.9%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.1%1-113.4%1-27.5%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.8%2-16.5%2-23.6%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.9%3-12.1%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.8% 45.5% 2.20 -23.4%

Draw 28.9% 33.3% 3.00 -8.0%

Away win 36.3% 32.3% 3.10 +12.5%

Over 2.5 45.8% 48.8% 2.05 -6.1%

Over 3.5 15.6% 27.4% 3.65 -25.8%

BTTS 49.4% 56.5% 1.77 -12.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.4%

D 29% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 12.6%

#3 0–1 14.0%

#4 1–0 12.1%

#5 0–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Europa1.0

Villarreal B1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 15.6%

Form & verdict PPG

EUROPA · PPG 1.76

VILLARREAL B · PPG 1.53

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.76), Away GOOD (1.53)

Win probability 1X2

Europa (H) 34.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -23.4%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.0%

Villarreal B (A) 36.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Europa face Villarreal B in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Europa a 35% chance, the draw 29% and Villarreal B 36%, so Villarreal B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Europa and 1.1 for Villarreal B (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Europa are averaging 1.76 points per game versus 1.53 for Villarreal B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.5%. This match finished 3-3.

Europa vs Villarreal B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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