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Union Berlin W vs Hoffenheim W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Regular Season - 25 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 14:00

Union Berlin W

PPG 1.25 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Hoffenheim W

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.5% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-15.8%0-26.0%0-34.2%0-4+3.6%1 1-04.1%1-18.6%1-29.0%1-36.3%1-4+5.4%2 2-03.1%2-16.5%2-26.8%2-34.7%2-4+4.0%3 3-01.5%3-13.2%3-23.4%3-32.4%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.7%4+-21.8%4+-31.2%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.6% 33.3% 3.00 -8.5%

Draw 26.6% 27.0% 3.70 -0.9%

Away win 44.8% 50.0% 2.00 -10.4%

Over 2.5 61.7% 69.0% 1.45 -10.5%

Over 3.5 48.3% 46.5% 2.15 +3.8%

BTTS 62.5% 71.4% 1.40 -12.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob62.5%

A 45% / xG 1.5-2.1 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 2–1 6.5%

#5 1–3 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Berlin W1.5

Hoffenheim W2.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 48.3%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION BERLIN W · PPG 1.25

HOFFENHEIM W · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.83) vs Home AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Union Berlin W (H) 28.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.5%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -0.9%

Hoffenheim W (A) 44.8%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Berlin W face Hoffenheim W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Berlin W a 29% chance, the draw 27% and Hoffenheim W 45%, so Hoffenheim W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Union Berlin W and 2.1 for Hoffenheim W (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Berlin W are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.83 for Hoffenheim W. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.8%. This match finished 0-2.

Union Berlin W vs Hoffenheim W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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