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Osijek vs Istra Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Regular Season - 34 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 14:00

Osijek

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Istra

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-114.2%0-27.9%0-32.9%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.1%1-113.4%1-27.5%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.7%2-16.3%2-23.5%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.8%3-12.0%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.6% 53.8% 1.86 -35.6%

Draw 29.2% 29.9% 3.35 -1.3%

Away win 36.3% 25.6% 3.90 +41.6%

Over 2.5 45.8% 51.3% 1.95 -10.7%

Over 3.5 15.3% 29.4% 3.40 -28.8%

BTTS 48.2% 56.5% 1.77 -14.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.2%

D 29% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 12.8%

#3 0–1✓ 14.2%

#4 1–0 12.1%

#5 0–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Osijek0.9

Istra1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 15.3%

Form & verdict PPG

OSIJEK · PPG 1.00

ISTRA · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Osijek (H) 34.6%

ODDS 1.86 · IMPLIED 53.8% EV -35.6%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -1.3%

Istra (A) 36.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +41.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Osijek face Istra in Croatia - HNL on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Osijek a 35% chance, the draw 29% and Istra 36%, so Istra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Osijek and 1.1 for Istra (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Osijek are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.06 for Istra. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +41.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Osijek vs Istra Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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