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Turan vs Karvan Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Regular Season - 31 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 13:00

Turan

PPG 1.93 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Karvan

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-14.1%0-21.1%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.8%1-18.3%1-22.2%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-016.1%2-18.4%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.9%3-15.7%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-08.8%4+-14.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.0% 80.0% 1.25 -20.0%

Draw 25.7% 20.8% 4.80 +14.0%

Away win 10.3% 8.3% 12.00 +14.2%

Over 2.5 46.5% 62.5% 1.60 -25.6%

Over 3.5 25.4% 40.8% 2.45 -22.7%

BTTS 47.2% 48.8% 2.05 -3.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 23.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob47.2%

H 64% / xG 2.0-0.5 / O2.5 46% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.1%

#2 1–0✓ 15.8%

#3 3–0 10.9%

#4 1–1 8.3%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Turan2.0

Karvan0.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TURAN · PPG 1.93

KARVAN · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.93) vs P(Home)=64.0%

Win probability 1X2

Turan (H) 64.0%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -20.0%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +14.0%

Karvan (A) 10.3%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +14.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Turan face Karvan in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Turan a 64% chance, the draw 26% and Karvan 10%, so Turan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Turan and 0.5 for Karvan (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Turan are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 0.43 for Karvan. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Turan vs Karvan Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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