Fiorentina vs Genoa Prediction & Tips

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Italy - Serie A Regular Season - 36 Stadio Artemio Franchi· Florence Sunday, May 10, 2026 13:00

Fiorentina PPG 1.12

0-0 HIT CS2

Genoa PPG 1.06

Away· +18.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 38.0%

Odds: 2.00 EV: -24.0%

Draw 29.5%

Odds: 3.35 EV: -0.7%

Away 32.5%

Odds: 3.65 EV: +18.6%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 46.3% Odds: 2.00 -7.4%

Over 3.5 20.3% Odds: 3.65 -15.5%

BTTS 52.3% Odds: 1.83 -4.3%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✔

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Fiorentina

1.21

Genoa

1.10

Model SuggestionBTTS -4.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -4.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+18.6%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5/Under 55%

BTTS/No 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -26.7%

Bet Hit 40% (10 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.12), Away AVERAGE (1.06)