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Fiorentina vs Genoa Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 36 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 13:00

Fiorentina

PPG 1.12 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Genoa

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-110.9%0-26.0%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.0%1-113.2%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.2%2-18.0%2-24.4%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.9%3-13.2%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.0% 50.0% 2.00 -24.0%

Draw 29.5% 29.9% 3.35 -0.7%

Away win 32.5% 27.4% 3.65 +18.6%

Over 2.5 46.3% 50.0% 2.00 -7.4%

Over 3.5 20.3% 27.4% 3.65 -15.5%

BTTS 52.3% 54.6% 1.83 -4.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

D 30% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0✓ 9.9%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 0–1 10.9%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fiorentina1.2

Genoa1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FIORENTINA · PPG 1.12

GENOA · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

54%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.12), Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Fiorentina (H) 38.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -24.0%

Draw 29.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -0.7%

Genoa (A) 32.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +18.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fiorentina face Genoa in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fiorentina a 38% chance, the draw 30% and Genoa 33%, so Fiorentina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Fiorentina and 1.1 for Genoa (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fiorentina are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 1.06 for Genoa. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.6%. This match finished 0-0.

Fiorentina vs Genoa Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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