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Cremonese vs Pisa Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Regular Season - 36 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 13:00

Cremonese

PPG 0.76 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Pisa

PPG 0.47 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.9% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-110.5%0-24.8%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.3%1-113.1%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.0%2-18.2%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.7%3-13.4%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.4%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 57.8% 1.73 -23.4%

Draw 29.4% 28.2% 3.55 +2.6%

Away win 26.3% 20.8% 4.80 +15.7%

Over 2.5 45.8% 47.6% 2.10 -3.8%

Over 3.5 17.5% 25.6% 3.90 -19.1%

BTTS 50.9% 50.0% 2.00 +1.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.9%

H 44% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 11.4%

#3 1–0 14.3%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 0–1 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cremonese1.3

Pisa0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 17.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CREMONESE · PPG 0.76

PISA · PPG 0.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.76), Away POOR (0.47)

Win probability 1X2

Cremonese (H) 44.3%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -23.4%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +2.6%

Pisa (A) 26.3%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +15.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cremonese face Pisa in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cremonese a 44% chance, the draw 29% and Pisa 26%, so Cremonese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Cremonese and 0.9 for Pisa (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cremonese are averaging 0.76 points per game versus 0.47 for Pisa. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +15.7%. This match finished 3-0.

Cremonese vs Pisa Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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