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Schwaben A. vs W. Burghausen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 29 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:00

Schwaben A.

PPG 0.71 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

W. Burghausen

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-19.3%0-27.7%0-34.2%0-4+2.5%1 1-06.9%1-111.4%1-29.4%1-35.2%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.2%2-17.0%2-25.8%2-33.2%2-4+1.9%3 3-01.7%3-12.8%3-22.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.4% 39.2% 2.55 -27.6%

Draw 24.3% 28.2% 3.55 -13.7%

Away win 47.4% 42.6% 2.35 +11.4%

Over 2.5 54.8% 61.7% 1.62 -11.2%

Over 3.5 32.4% 38.5% 2.60 -15.8%

BTTS 57.0% 66.7% 1.50 -14.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob57.0%

A 47% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–1 9.3%

#4 0–2 7.7%

#5 2–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Schwaben A.1.2

W. Burghausen1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SCHWABEN A. · PPG 0.71

W. BURGHAUSEN · PPG 0.92

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.71), Away POOR (0.92)

Win probability 1X2

Schwaben A. (H) 28.4%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -27.6%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -13.7%

W. Burghausen (A) 47.4%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +11.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Schwaben A. face W. Burghausen in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Schwaben A. a 28% chance, the draw 24% and W. Burghausen 47%, so W. Burghausen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Schwaben A. and 1.6 for W. Burghausen (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Schwaben A. are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 0.92 for W. Burghausen. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Schwaben A. vs W. Burghausen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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