Schwaben A. vs W. Burghausen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern Bayern - 29 Rosenaustadion· Augsburg Saturday, April 18, 2026 12:00

Schwaben A. PPG 0.71

1-0 MISS

W. Burghausen PPG 0.92

Away· +11.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Schwaben A. face W. Burghausen in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Schwaben A. a 28% chance, the draw 24% and W. Burghausen 47%, so W. Burghausen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Schwaben A. and 1.6 for W. Burghausen (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Schwaben A. are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 0.92 for W. Burghausen. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 28.4%

Odds: 2.55 EV: -27.6%

Draw 24.3%

Odds: 3.55 EV: -13.7%

Away 47.4%

Odds: 2.35 EV: +11.4%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 54.8% Odds: 1.62 -11.2%

Over 3.5 32.4% Odds: 2.60 -15.8%

BTTS 57.0% Odds: 1.50 -14.5%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 0-2 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Schwaben A.

1.22

W. Burghausen

1.65

Model SuggestionBTTS -14.5% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-14.5%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.71), Away POOR (0.92)