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Rosenborg vs Lillestrom Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 8 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 12:30

Rosenborg

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Lillestrom

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDL

// Model verdict

Away 49% chance

Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 43.5% — a clear edge.

+45.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-120.8%0-218.0%0-310.3%0-4+6.6%1 1-04.7%1-18.1%1-27.0%1-34.0%1-4+2.6%2 2-00.9%2-11.6%2-21.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.5%3 3-00.1%3-10.2%3-20.2%3-30.1%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 11.9% 35.1% 2.85 -39.6%

Draw 25.0% 28.2% 3.55 -6.8%

Away win 63.1% 43.5% 2.30 +45.1%

Over 2.5 45.8% 61.7% 1.62 -25.8%

Over 3.5 16.5% 39.2% 2.55 -34.8%

BTTS 44.9% 66.7% 1.50 -32.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 9.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.4 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob44.9%

A 63% / xG 0.4-1.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 20.8%

#2 0–2 18.0%

#3 0–0 12.0%

#4 0–3 10.3%

#5 1–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rosenborg0.4

Lillestrom1.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 16.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ROSENBORG · PPG 1.33

LILLESTROM · PPG 2.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

49%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs Home AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Rosenborg (H) 11.9%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -39.6%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -6.8%

Lillestrom (A) 63.1%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +45.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rosenborg face Lillestrom in Norway - Eliteserien on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rosenborg a 12% chance, the draw 25% and Lillestrom 63%, so Lillestrom are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.4 for Rosenborg and 1.7 for Lillestrom (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rosenborg are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 2.50 for Lillestrom. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +45.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Rosenborg vs Lillestrom Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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