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GOES vs Meerssen Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Group B - 32 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 12:30

GOES

PPG 1.20 · HOME

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Meerssen

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-15.4%0-24.1%0-32.1%0-4+1.1%1 1-06.5%1-19.9%1-27.4%1-33.7%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.9%2-18.9%2-26.8%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.6%3-15.4%3-24.1%3-32.1%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.7%4+-22.8%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% — — —

Draw 26.3% — — —

Away win 30.3% — — —

Over 2.5 60.2% — — —

Over 3.5 42.5% — — —

BTTS 58.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -21.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.8%

H 43% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

GOES1.8

Meerssen1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 42.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GOES · PPG 1.20

MEERSSEN · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

GOES (H) 43.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Meerssen (A) 30.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

GOES face Meerssen in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives GOES a 43% chance, the draw 26% and Meerssen 30%, so GOES are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for GOES and 1.5 for Meerssen (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, GOES are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.07 for Meerssen. This match finished 3-4.

GOES vs Meerssen Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Match Preview & Prediction

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