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Memmingen vs Wurzburger K. Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 29 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:00

Memmingen

PPG 1.23 · HOME

1 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Wurzburger K.

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 59.2% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-116.2%0-213.0%0-36.9%0-4+3.9%1 1-07.0%1-111.2%1-28.9%1-34.8%1-4+2.7%2 2-02.4%2-13.9%2-23.1%2-31.6%2-4+0.9%3 3-00.6%3-10.9%3-20.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.9% 22.2% 4.50 -28.4%

Draw 24.8% 29.0% 3.45 -14.4%

Away win 59.2% 58.8% 1.70 +0.6%

Over 2.5 40.0% 51.3% 1.95 -22.0%

Over 3.5 19.8% 29.9% 3.35 -33.7%

BTTS 39.7% 54.6% 1.83 -27.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob39.7%

A 59% / xG 0.7-1.6 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 16.2%

#2 0–2 13.0%

#3 1–1 11.2%

#4 0–0 10.2%

#5 1–2 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Memmingen0.7

Wurzburger K.1.6

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.0% · O3.5 PROB 19.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MEMMINGEN · PPG 1.23

WURZBURGER K. · PPG 1.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.86) vs Home AVERAGE (1.23)

Win probability 1X2

Memmingen (H) 15.9%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -28.4%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -14.4%

Wurzburger K. (A) 59.2%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV +0.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Memmingen face Wurzburger K. in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Memmingen a 16% chance, the draw 25% and Wurzburger K. 59%, so Wurzburger K. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Memmingen and 1.6 for Wurzburger K. (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Memmingen are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 1.86 for Wurzburger K.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.6%. This match finished 1-5.

Memmingen vs Wurzburger K. Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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