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P. Horodenka vs Ahrobiznes V. Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Regular Season - 27 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 12:00

P. Horodenka

PPG 1.23 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Ahrobiznes V.

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.23), Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-113.7%0-28.1%0-33.2%0-4+1.2%1 1-011.2%1-113.3%1-27.9%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.5%2-16.5%2-23.9%2-31.5%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.8%3-12.1%3-21.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.7% — — —

Draw 28.9% — — —

Away win 36.4% — — —

Over 2.5 45.8% — — —

Over 3.5 17.3% — — —

BTTS 51.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob51.0%

D 29% / xG 1.0-1.2 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 11.5%

#3 0–1 13.7%

#4 1–0✓ 11.2%

#5 0–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

P. Horodenka1.0

Ahrobiznes V.1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 17.3%

Form & verdict PPG

P. HORODENKA · PPG 1.23

AHROBIZNES V. · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.23), Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

P. Horodenka (H) 34.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ahrobiznes V. (A) 36.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

P. Horodenka face Ahrobiznes V. in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives P. Horodenka a 35% chance, the draw 29% and Ahrobiznes V. 36%, so Ahrobiznes V. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for P. Horodenka and 1.2 for Ahrobiznes V. (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, P. Horodenka are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 1.38 for Ahrobiznes V.. This match finished 1-0.

P. Horodenka vs Ahrobiznes V. Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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