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PSIM Yogyakarta vs Malut United Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 32 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 12:00

PSIM Yogyakarta

PPG 1.27 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Malut United

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-18.8%0-27.5%0-34.3%0-4+2.7%1 1-06.5%1-111.1%1-29.5%1-35.4%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.1%2-17.0%2-25.9%2-33.4%2-4+2.1%3 3-01.7%3-12.9%3-22.5%3-31.4%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.0% 36.4% 2.75 -17.5%

Draw 26.6% 28.6% 3.50 -4.1%

Away win 43.4% 44.4% 2.25 -2.4%

Over 2.5 59.3% 60.6% 1.65 -2.2%

Over 3.5 34.4% 38.5% 2.60 -10.6%

BTTS 58.8% 66.7% 1.50 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob58.8%

A 43% / xG 1.3-1.7 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.5%

#4 0–1 8.8%

#5 2–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PSIM Yogyakarta1.3

Malut United1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PSIM YOGYAKARTA · PPG 1.27

MALUT UNITED · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.27) vs Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

PSIM Yogyakarta (H) 30.0%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -17.5%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -4.1%

Malut United (A) 43.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

PSIM Yogyakarta face Malut United in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PSIM Yogyakarta a 30% chance, the draw 27% and Malut United 43%, so Malut United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for PSIM Yogyakarta and 1.7 for Malut United (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PSIM Yogyakarta are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.67 for Malut United. This match finished 2-0.

PSIM Yogyakarta vs Malut United Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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