Today / Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost / Greifswald vs Lok. Leipzig

Greifswald vs Lok. Leipzig Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Nordost - 33 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 12:00

Greifswald

PPG 1.13 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Lok. Leipzig

PPG 2.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs Home AVERAGE (1.13)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-113.7%0-210.9%0-35.8%0-4+3.3%1 1-07.4%1-111.8%1-29.4%1-35.0%1-4+2.8%2 2-03.2%2-15.1%2-24.0%2-32.1%2-4+1.2%3 3-00.9%3-11.4%3-21.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.8% — — —

Draw 26.3% — — —

Away win 49.9% — — —

Over 2.5 46.5% — — —

Over 3.5 23.1% — — —

BTTS 52.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob52.3%

A 50% / xG 0.9-1.6 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.8%

#2 0–1 13.7%

#3 0–2 10.9%

#4 0–0 8.6%

#5 1–2 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Greifswald0.9

Lok. Leipzig1.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 23.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GREIFSWALD · PPG 1.13

LOK. LEIPZIG · PPG 2.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs Home AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Greifswald (H) 23.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Lok. Leipzig (A) 49.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Greifswald face Lok. Leipzig in Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Greifswald a 24% chance, the draw 26% and Lok. Leipzig 50%, so Lok. Leipzig are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Greifswald and 1.6 for Lok. Leipzig (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Greifswald are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 2.13 for Lok. Leipzig. This match finished 1-1.

Greifswald vs Lok. Leipzig Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Match Preview & Prediction

More Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost Predictions