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Qingdao Hainiu vs Dalian Yingbo Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 12:00

Qingdao Hainiu

PPG 2.00 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Dalian Yingbo

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-14.7%0-23.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-07.1%1-19.5%1-26.3%1-32.8%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.2%2-19.5%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.8%3-16.4%3-24.2%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-15.1%4+-23.4%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 44.2% 2.26 +11.4%

Draw 25.6% 29.0% 3.45 -7.0%

Away win 25.1% 35.7% 2.80 -17.8%

Over 2.5 60.2% 57.8% 1.73 +4.2%

Over 3.5 42.9% 35.7% 2.80 +20.1%

BTTS 58.8% 64.5% 1.55 -8.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.8%

H 49% / xG 2.0-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.2%

#4 3–1✓ 6.4%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qingdao Hainiu2.0

Dalian Yingbo1.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 42.9%

Form & verdict PPG

QINGDAO HAINIU · PPG 2.00

DALIAN YINGBO · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Qingdao Hainiu (H) 49.3%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV +11.4%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -7.0%

Dalian Yingbo (A) 25.1%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Qingdao Hainiu face Dalian Yingbo in China - Super League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qingdao Hainiu a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Dalian Yingbo 25%, so Qingdao Hainiu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Qingdao Hainiu and 1.3 for Dalian Yingbo (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qingdao Hainiu are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.20 for Dalian Yingbo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.1%. This match finished 3-1.

Qingdao Hainiu vs Dalian Yingbo Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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