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Sandhausen vs Fulda-Lehnerz Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Südwest - 29 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:00

Sandhausen

PPG 1.36 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Fulda-Lehnerz

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-17.0%0-27.0%0-34.6%0-4+3.6%1 1-04.8%1-19.5%1-29.4%1-36.2%1-4+4.9%2 2-03.3%2-16.5%2-26.4%2-34.2%2-4+3.3%3 3-01.5%3-12.9%3-22.9%3-31.9%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.2% 47.6% 2.10 -45.0%

Draw 21.8% 27.4% 3.65 -20.4%

Away win 52.0% 35.1% 2.85 +48.2%

Over 2.5 64.9% 59.9% 1.67 +8.4%

Over 3.5 42.9% 37.0% 2.70 +15.8%

BTTS 64.1% 63.7% 1.57 +0.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob64.1%

A 52% / xG 1.4-2.0 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–1 7.0%

#4 0–2 7.0%

#5 2–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sandhausen1.4

Fulda-Lehnerz2.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SANDHAUSEN · PPG 1.36

FULDA-LEHNERZ · PPG 1.43

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.36), Away AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Sandhausen (H) 26.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -45.0%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -20.4%

Fulda-Lehnerz (A) 52.0%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +48.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sandhausen face Fulda-Lehnerz in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sandhausen a 26% chance, the draw 22% and Fulda-Lehnerz 52%, so Fulda-Lehnerz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sandhausen and 2.0 for Fulda-Lehnerz (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sandhausen are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.43 for Fulda-Lehnerz. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +48.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Sandhausen vs Fulda-Lehnerz Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Match Preview & Prediction

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