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Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Port Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 11:35

Beijing Guoan

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Shanghai Port

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-17.5%0-24.7%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.3%1-111.7%1-27.4%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.1%2-25.7%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.8%3-14.8%3-23.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.6%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 57.8% 1.73 -22.1%

Draw 27.2% 26.0% 3.85 +2.8%

Away win 27.8% 25.3% 3.95 +5.9%

Over 2.5 53.1% 66.7% 1.50 -20.3%

Over 3.5 31.2% 44.4% 2.25 -29.8%

BTTS 55.8% 69.0% 1.45 -19.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.8%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.0%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Beijing Guoan1.6

Shanghai Port1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BEIJING GUOAN · PPG 1.00

SHANGHAI PORT · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.25)

Win probability 1X2

Beijing Guoan (H) 45.0%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -22.1%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +2.8%

Shanghai Port (A) 27.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Beijing Guoan face Shanghai Port in China - Super League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Beijing Guoan a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Shanghai Port 28%, so Beijing Guoan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Beijing Guoan and 1.3 for Shanghai Port (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.25 for Shanghai Port. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.9%. This match finished 2-2.

Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Port Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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