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Hessen Kassel vs Freiburg B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Südwest - 29 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:00

Hessen Kassel

PPG 1.64 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Freiburg B

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 84.0% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a clear edge.

+17.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-12.0%0-22.0%0-31.4%0-4+1.1%1 1-02.5%1-15.2%1-25.2%1-33.5%1-4+2.9%2 2-03.3%2-16.7%2-26.8%2-34.6%2-4+3.7%3 3-02.9%3-15.8%3-25.9%3-34.0%3-4+3.2%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-17.0%4+-27.1%4+-34.8%4+-4+3.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.8% 59.5% 1.68 -14.7%

Draw 18.6% 25.0% 4.00 -25.6%

Away win 30.6% 26.0% 3.85 +17.8%

Over 2.5 84.0% 71.4% 1.40 +17.6%

Over 3.5 67.8% 50.0% 2.00 +35.6%

BTTS 80.4% 71.4% 1.40 +12.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob80.4%

H 51% / xG 2.6-2.0 / O2.5 84% / BTTS 80%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.8%

#2 2–1 6.7%

#3 3–2 5.9%

#4 3–1 5.8%

#5 1–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hessen Kassel2.6

Freiburg B2.0

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 84.0% · O3.5 PROB 67.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HESSEN KASSEL · PPG 1.64

FREIBURG B · PPG 1.15

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.64) > Away AVERAGE (1.15)

Win probability 1X2

Hessen Kassel (H) 50.8%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -14.7%

Draw 18.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -25.6%

Freiburg B (A) 30.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hessen Kassel face Freiburg B in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hessen Kassel a 51% chance, the draw 19% and Freiburg B 31%, so Hessen Kassel are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Hessen Kassel and 2.0 for Freiburg B (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 84% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 80% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hessen Kassel are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.15 for Freiburg B. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +35.6%. This match finished 2-3.

Hessen Kassel vs Freiburg B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Match Preview & Prediction

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