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Guangdong M. vs Hubei Istar Prediction— China - League Two

Regular Season - 8 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 11:30

Guangdong M.

PPG 0.67 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Hubei Istar

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.8%0-120.0%0-29.7%0-33.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.6%1-112.2%1-25.9%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-03.8%2-13.7%2-21.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.2%3 3-00.8%3-10.7%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.6% 40.0% 2.50 -24.6%

Draw 34.7% 35.7% 2.80 -2.8%

Away win 41.8% 37.0% 2.70 +12.9%

Over 2.5 35.1% 45.5% 2.20 -22.8%

Over 3.5 7.5% 26.3% 3.80 -42.9%

BTTS 45.9% 54.1% 1.85 -15.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 1.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob45.9%

A 42% / xG 0.6-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 20.8%

#2 0–1 20.0%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 1–0 12.6%

#5 0–2 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guangdong M.0.6

Hubei Istar1.0

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 7.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GUANGDONG M. · PPG 0.67

HUBEI ISTAR · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs Home POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Guangdong M. (H) 23.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -24.6%

Draw 34.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -2.8%

Hubei Istar (A) 41.8%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +12.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guangdong M. face Hubei Istar in China - League Two on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guangdong M. a 24% chance, the draw 35% and Hubei Istar 42%, so Hubei Istar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Guangdong M. and 1.0 for Hubei Istar (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guangdong M. are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.33 for Hubei Istar. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.9%. This match finished 1-2.

Guangdong M. vs Hubei Istar Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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