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Freiberg vs Steinbach Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Südwest - 29 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:00

Freiberg

PPG 2.36 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Steinbach

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.7% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-12.7%0-21.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.3%1-17.1%1-24.0%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.2%2-19.2%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.1%3-17.9%3-24.4%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-19.6%4+-25.4%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.1% 67.6% 1.48 +2.3%

Draw 16.6% 22.2% 4.50 -25.3%

Away win 14.3% 20.0% 5.00 -28.5%

Over 2.5 71.7% 73.5% 1.36 -2.5%

Over 3.5 50.9% 51.8% 1.93 -1.8%

BTTS 62.3% 69.4% 1.44 -10.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.3%

H 69% / xG 2.6-1.1 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.2%

#2 2–0 8.2%

#3 3–1 7.9%

#4 3–0 7.1%

#5 1–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Freiberg2.6

Steinbach1.1

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.7% · O3.5 PROB 50.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FREIBERG · PPG 2.36

STEINBACH · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.36) > Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Freiberg (H) 69.1%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV +2.3%

Draw 16.6%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -25.3%

Steinbach (A) 14.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -28.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Freiberg face Steinbach in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Freiberg a 69% chance, the draw 17% and Steinbach 14%, so Freiberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Freiberg and 1.1 for Steinbach (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Freiberg are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 1.57 for Steinbach. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.3%. This match finished 1-3.

Freiberg vs Steinbach Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Match Preview & Prediction

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