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Celtic vs Rangers Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Championship Group · Matchday 36 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 11:00

Celtic

PPG 2.35 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Rangers

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 64% chance

Model probability 56.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-18.0%0-25.2%0-32.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.0%1-111.9%1-27.8%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.7%2-18.8%2-25.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.3%3-14.4%3-22.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.2% 50.8% 1.97 -18.8%

Draw 25.6% 26.0% 3.85 -0.9%

Away win 33.2% 30.3% 3.30 +9.6%

Over 2.5 53.1% 64.5% 1.55 -17.7%

Over 3.5 30.9% 42.6% 2.35 -27.4%

BTTS 56.4% 66.7% 1.50 -15.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob56.4%

H 41% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 0–0 6.1%

#4 1–2 7.8%

#5 1–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Celtic1.5

Rangers1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CELTIC · PPG 2.35

RANGERS · PPG 1.82

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

64%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.35) > Away GOOD (1.82)

Win probability 1X2

Celtic (H) 41.2%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -18.8%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -0.9%

Rangers (A) 33.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Celtic face Rangers in Scotland - Premiership on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Celtic a 41% chance, the draw 26% and Rangers 33%, so Celtic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Celtic and 1.3 for Rangers (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Celtic are averaging 2.35 points per game versus 1.82 for Rangers. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.6%. This match finished 3-1.

Celtic vs Rangers Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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