Today / Scotland - Premiership / Celtic vs Rangers

Celtic vs Rangers Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Championship Group - 36 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 11:00

Celtic

PPG 2.35 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Rangers

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-18.0%0-25.2%0-32.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.0%1-111.9%1-27.8%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.7%2-18.8%2-25.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.3%3-14.4%3-22.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.2% 50.8% 1.97 -18.8%

Draw 25.6% 26.0% 3.85 -0.9%

Away win 33.2% 30.3% 3.30 +9.6%

Over 2.5 53.1% 64.5% 1.55 -17.7%

Over 3.5 30.9% 42.6% 2.35 -27.4%

BTTS 56.4% 66.7% 1.50 -15.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.7%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob56.4%

H 41% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 0–0 6.1%

#4 1–2 7.8%

#5 1–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Celtic1.5

Rangers1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CELTIC · PPG 2.35

RANGERS · PPG 1.82

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.35) > Away GOOD (1.82)

Win probability 1X2

Celtic (H) 41.2%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -18.8%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -0.9%

Rangers (A) 33.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Celtic face Rangers in Scotland - Premiership on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Celtic a 41% chance, the draw 26% and Rangers 33%, so Celtic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Celtic and 1.3 for Rangers (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Celtic are averaging 2.35 points per game versus 1.82 for Rangers. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.6%. This match finished 3-1.

Celtic vs Rangers Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - Premiership Predictions