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Hellas Verona vs Como Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 36 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 10:30

Hellas Verona

PPG 0.47 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLDL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Como

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWW

// Model verdict

Away 69% chance

Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-117.5%0-214.8%0-38.4%0-4+5.2%1 1-06.0%1-110.1%1-28.6%1-34.8%1-4+3.0%2 2-01.7%2-12.9%2-22.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-00.3%3-10.6%3-20.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.1% 12.2% 8.20 +4.5%

Draw 26.4% 22.5% 4.45 +10.5%

Away win 60.5% 72.5% 1.38 -16.5%

Over 2.5 45.9% 54.1% 1.85 -15.1%

Over 3.5 19.5% 31.3% 3.20 -22.6%

BTTS 48.2% 46.5% 2.15 +3.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob48.2%

A 60% / xG 0.6-1.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1✓ 17.5%

#2 0–2 14.8%

#3 0–0 10.3%

#4 1–1 10.1%

#5 1–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hellas Verona0.6

Como1.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 19.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HELLAS VERONA · PPG 0.47

COMO · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

69%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.71) vs Home POOR (0.47)

Win probability 1X2

Hellas Verona (H) 13.1%

ODDS 8.20 · IMPLIED 12.2% EV +4.5%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +10.5%

Como (A) 60.5%

ODDS 1.38 · IMPLIED 72.5% EV -16.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hellas Verona face Como in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hellas Verona a 13% chance, the draw 26% and Como 61%, so Como are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Hellas Verona and 1.7 for Como (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hellas Verona are averaging 0.47 points per game versus 1.71 for Como. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +10.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Hellas Verona vs Como Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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