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Prykarpattia vs MFC Metalurh Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Regular Season - 27 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 10:00

Prykarpattia

PPG 1.15 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

MFC Metalurh

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.15) > Away POOR (0.62)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-17.0%0-22.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.7%1-110.9%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.8%2-18.5%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.2%3-14.4%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-12.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% — — —

Draw 26.5% — — —

Away win 22.3% — — —

Over 2.5 45.8% — — —

Over 3.5 17.6% — — —

BTTS 48.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.2%

H 51% / xG 1.6-0.6 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.7%

#2 2–0 13.8%

#3 0–0 11.3%

#4 1–1 10.9%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Prykarpattia1.6

MFC Metalurh0.6

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 17.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PRYKARPATTIA · PPG 1.15

MFC METALURH · PPG 0.62

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.15) > Away POOR (0.62)

Win probability 1X2

Prykarpattia (H) 51.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

MFC Metalurh (A) 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Prykarpattia face MFC Metalurh in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Prykarpattia a 51% chance, the draw 27% and MFC Metalurh 22%, so Prykarpattia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Prykarpattia and 0.6 for MFC Metalurh (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Prykarpattia are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 0.62 for MFC Metalurh. This match finished 0-1.

Prykarpattia vs MFC Metalurh Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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