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Marbella vs Torremolinos Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 36 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 10:00

Marbella

PPG 1.31 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Torremolinos

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.3%0-112.6%0-26.5%0-32.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.1%1-113.5%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.0%2-17.2%2-23.7%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.5%3-12.6%3-21.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 30.3% 3.30 +19.8%

Draw 28.3% 28.2% 3.55 +0.3%

Away win 35.4% 51.3% 1.95 -31.0%

Over 2.5 45.8% 54.6% 1.83 -16.2%

Over 3.5 16.1% 32.3% 3.10 -30.0%

BTTS 50.8% 58.8% 1.70 -13.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.8%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.3%

#3 1–0 13.1%

#4 0–1✓ 12.6%

#5 2–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marbella1.1

Torremolinos1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 16.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MARBELLA · PPG 1.31

TORREMOLINOS · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.31) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Marbella (H) 36.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +19.8%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +0.3%

Torremolinos (A) 35.4%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -31.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Marbella face Torremolinos in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marbella a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Torremolinos 35%, so Marbella are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Marbella and 1.0 for Torremolinos (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marbella are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 0.88 for Torremolinos. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +19.8%. This match finished 0-1.

Marbella vs Torremolinos Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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